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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, though experts believe PVV stands little chance of joining the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and established a four-party right-leaning coalition that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to win between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-member parliament.

However, the far-right party's support has dipped since 2023, when it secured 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in June amid disagreements concerning his controversial immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

Following a campaign focused on topics such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the nation's severe housing shortage, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, expected to win between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, predicted to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with several facing heavy losses.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

In the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just less than one percent of the national vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Among the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of division ensures that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – typically composed of four parties in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from government. But, critics and analysts say that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

While the election result is hard to predict and coalition talks may require months, analysts indicate that after the most radical administration in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a inclusive alliance led by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable exit poll is expected soon after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will explore potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before assuming power.